Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cincinnati Reds @ Tampa Bay Rays
2026-04-21 · Tropicana Field
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Cincinnati Reds at Tampa Bay Rays at Tropicana Field on 2026-04-21. Predicted final score: Cincinnati Reds 4.99, Tampa Bay Rays 4.27. Model win probability: Tampa Bay Rays 44%, Cincinnati Reds 56%. Projected total runs: 9.26.
Cincinnati Reds
5.0
Predicted runs
56% to win
Tampa Bay Rays
4.3
Predicted runs
44% to win
Projected total: 9.3 runs
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