Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Detroit Tigers @ Pittsburgh Pirates
2026-08-17 · PNC Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for Detroit Tigers at Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on 2026-08-17. Predicted final score: Detroit Tigers 4.68, Pittsburgh Pirates 4.79. Model win probability: Pittsburgh Pirates 51%, Detroit Tigers 49%. Projected total runs: 9.47.
Detroit Tigers
4.7
Predicted runs
49% to win
Pittsburgh Pirates
4.8
Predicted runs
51% to win
Projected total: 9.5 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.