Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
New York Yankees @ Boston Red Sox
2026-04-21 · Fenway Park
Mongoose Bets' Monte Carlo model (2,500 simulations) for New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on 2026-04-21. Predicted final score: New York Yankees 6.35, Boston Red Sox 4.57. Model win probability: Boston Red Sox 36%, New York Yankees 64%. Projected total runs: 10.92.
New York Yankees
6.3
Predicted runs
64% to win
Boston Red Sox
4.6
Predicted runs
36% to win
Projected total: 10.9 runs
Tonight's Edges
Predictions from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Best bets, full prop edges, and DFS tools live inside Prop Central for subscribers.