Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ALAN RODEN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ALAN
RODEN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Gavin Williams · RHP
92.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
100
VS
ERA
4.42
WHIP
1.26
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 96.1 | 84.7 |
| Barrel% | 25% | 25% |
| Hard Hit% | 75% | 50% |
| xwOBA | .597 | .554 |
| xSLG | .950 | .842 |
| Whiff% | 21% | 23% |
| Chase% | 31% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
96.1 avg EV · 25.0% barrel · 75% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Williams0
Tonight's Park
HR
+7%
Hits
+1%
2B
+10%
3B
+10%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
6 355°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:03 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game