Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
ANDREW VAUGHN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
ANDREW
VAUGHN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
61
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Eury Pérez · RHP
94.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
31
VS
ERA
2.98
WHIP
0.96
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.1 | 85.9 |
| Barrel% | 10% | 6% |
| Hard Hit% | 38% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .313 | .375 |
| xSLG | .397 | .460 |
| Whiff% | 14% | 22% |
| Chase% | 25% | 44% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.1 avg EV · 9.5% barrel · 38% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Pérez0
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:26 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game