Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
AUSTIN RILEY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
AUSTIN
RILEY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
44
Grade D
Matchup
VS Cal Quantrill · RHP
90.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
16
VS
ERA
3.60
WHIP
1.08
K%
13%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.0 | 80.5 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 35% | 24% |
| xwOBA | .301 | .259 |
| xSLG | .429 | .396 |
| Whiff% | 31% | 6% |
| Chase% | 34% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.0 avg EV · 16.7% barrel · 35% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Quantrill0
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
5 285°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
-8%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game