Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
AUSTIN WELLS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
AUSTIN
WELLS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
51
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Walbert Ureña · RHP
95.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
48
VS
ERA
3.67
WHIP
1.27
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.0 | 87.8 |
| Barrel% | 13% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 36% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .324 | .344 |
| xSLG | .462 | .487 |
| Whiff% | 21% | 22% |
| Chase% | 30% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.0 avg EV · 13.3% barrel · 36% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Ureña—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
9 222°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:03 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game