Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
AUSTIN WELLS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
AUSTIN
WELLS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
52
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Roki Sasaki · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
42
VS
ERA
4.99
WHIP
1.18
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.4 | 88.3 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 41% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .334 | .342 |
| xSLG | .502 | .571 |
| Whiff% | 34% | 23% |
| Chase% | 36% | 41% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.4 avg EV · 8.8% barrel · 41% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sasaki—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
1 176°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:10 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game