Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BEN RICE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BEN
RICE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
84
Grade A-
Matchup
VS Roki Sasaki · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
84
VS
ERA
4.99
WHIP
1.18
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.4 | 88.3 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 46% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .449 | .342 |
| xSLG | .717 | .571 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 23% |
| Chase% | 28% | 41% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.4 avg EV · 17.4% barrel · 46% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sasaki—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
1 176°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game