Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + NHL + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Blake Snell
Los Angeles Dodgers · Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.83 · WHIP 1.12 · K 32% · 9 starts
BLAKE SNELL
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BLAKE
SNELL
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%96 mph
Curveball23%79 mph
Changeup18%85 mph
Slider10%89 mph
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.83
WHIP
1.12
K%
32%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 33% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 15.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .282 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 24% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
3.7
IP/GM
0.98
ERA
1.20
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
32% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 24% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 0.98 ERA · 35% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
60°
Wind
8 218°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
+4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:06 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.