Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRADEN MONTGOMERY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRADEN
MONTGOMERY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
45
Grade D
Matchup
VS Hunter Brown · RHP
91.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
14
VS
ERA
4.05
WHIP
1.45
K%
24%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.6 | 82.9 |
| Barrel% | 9% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 40% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .304 | .263 |
| xSLG | .411 | .311 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 41% |
| Chase% | 32% | 24% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.6 avg EV · 8.6% barrel · 40% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Brown—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
7 237°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 11:38 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game