Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRADEN MONTGOMERY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRADEN
MONTGOMERY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Chris Sale · LHP
88.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
76
VS
ERA
2.35
WHIP
1.21
K%
28%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 100.3 | 87.5 |
| Barrel% | 33% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 100% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .520 | .385 |
| xSLG | .800 | .536 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 27% |
| Chase% | 30% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
100.3 avg EV · 33.3% barrel · 100% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sale—
Tonight's Park
HR
-5%
Hits
-2%
2B
-9%
3B
-28%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
12 213°
Rain
53%
HR Adj
+9%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:28 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game