Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brandon Pfaadt
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.57 · WHIP 0.98 · K 15% · 11 starts
BRANDON PFAADT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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BRANDON
PFAADT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam26%93 mph
Changeup23%87 mph
Sinker19%93 mph
Sweeper14%85 mph
Cutter10%90 mph
Curveball9%82 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.57
WHIP
0.98
K%
15%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 14% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 6.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .241 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 5% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 30% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.4
K/GM
6.7
IP/GM
0.53
ERA
0.83
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
15% season K rate
Contact Suppression
5% barrel · 30% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 0.53 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
92°
Wind
8 310°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+13%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:24 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.