Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + NHL + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Brandon Pfaadt
Arizona Diamondbacks · Arizona Diamondbacks vs San Diego Padres · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.17 · WHIP 1.06 · K 17% · 11 starts
BRANDON PFAADT
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
BRANDON
PFAADT
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam33%93 mph
Sinker15%93 mph
Curveball14%83 mph
Cutter12%91 mph
Sweeper12%84 mph
Changeup12%87 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.17
WHIP
1.06
K%
17%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .357 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
6.2
IP/GM
4.65
ERA
1.32
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
17% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 4.65 ERA · 17% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+5%
Hits
-3%
2B
-4%
3B
-45%
K
+1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
5 268°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:00 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.