Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Brandon Pfaadt
Arizona Diamondbacks · San Francisco Giants vs Arizona Diamondbacks · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.70 · WHIP 1.26 · K 14% · 4 starts
BRANDON PFAADT
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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BRANDON
PFAADT
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Pitch-mix data not available.
Matchup
VS SF LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
46
VS
ERA
4.70
WHIP
1.26
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 17% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 5.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 17% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .379 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 20% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.5
K/GM
5.8
IP/GM
4.70
ERA
1.26
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
20% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 4 starts
0 of 4 starts over
Last 5: 4.70 ERA · 14% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SF—
Tonight's Park
HR
-14%
Hits
+6%
2B
+16%
3B
+89%
K
-6%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 9:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.