Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRETT CALLAHAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRETT
CALLAHAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Braxton Ashcraft · RHP
92.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
64
VS
ERA
4.61
WHIP
1.06
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 95.6 | 88.5 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 75% | 44% |
| xwOBA | .544 | .355 |
| xSLG | .674 | .526 |
| Whiff% | 9% | 19% |
| Chase% | 13% | 37% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
95.6 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 75% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Ashcraft—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
8 320°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:32 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game