Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRIAN NAVARRETO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRIAN
NAVARRETO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Cristopher Sánchez · LHP
90.8 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
19
VS
ERA
4.06
WHIP
1.41
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 63.5 | 88.1 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 4% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 34% |
| xwOBA | .238 | .379 |
| xSLG | .284 | .489 |
| Whiff% | 30% | 35% |
| Chase% | 42% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
63.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Sánchez—
Tonight's Park
HR
+12%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
+1%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 180°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:18 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game