Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
BRIAN SERVEN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
BRIAN
SERVEN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
46
Grade D
Matchup
VS Hayden Wesneski · RHP
88.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
67
VS
ERA
5.16
WHIP
1.32
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.6 | 88.5 |
| Barrel% | 11% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .376 | .366 |
| xSLG | .565 | .518 |
| Whiff% | 23% | 26% |
| Chase% | 29% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.6 avg EV · 11.1% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Wesneski—
Tonight's Park
HR
+4%
Hits
0%
2B
-4%
3B
-14%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
94°
Wind
14 175°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+21%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:05 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game