Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Cam Schlittler
New York Yankees · New York Yankees vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.62 · WHIP 1.06 · K 29% · 11 starts
CAM SCHLITTLER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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CAM
SCHLITTLER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam46%98 mph
Cutter27%96 mph
Sinker21%98 mph
Curveball6%86 mph
Matchup
VS WSH LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.62
WHIP
1.06
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .386 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 32% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.2
K/GM
5.9
IP/GM
2.73
ERA
1.04
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 32% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.73 ERA · 33% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs WSH—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
9 85°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.