Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Chris Sale
Atlanta Braves · Los Angeles Dodgers vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 1.78 · WHIP 0.94 · K 33% · 11 starts
CHRIS SALE
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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CHRIS
SALE
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam42%96 mph
Slider41%80 mph
Changeup9%89 mph
Sinker8%96 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
1.78
WHIP
0.94
K%
33%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 24% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .370 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 40% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.6
K/GM
6.6
IP/GM
1.64
ERA
0.82
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
33% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 40% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.64 ERA · 34% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
5 190°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:44 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.