Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DANNY JANSEN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DANNY
JANSEN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Cade Cavalli · RHP
91.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
5
VS
ERA
2.43
WHIP
0.96
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 67.3 | 88.2 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 0% | 41% |
| xwOBA | .152 | .344 |
| xSLG | .182 | .510 |
| Whiff% | 33% | 25% |
| Chase% | 55% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
67.3 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 0% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Cavalli—
Tonight's Park
HR
+15%
Hits
-1%
2B
-4%
3B
-21%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:48 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game