Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
DAVID FRY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
DAVID
FRY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
44
Grade D
Matchup
VS Mason Montgomery · LHP
94.6 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
VS
ERA
4.00
WHIP
1.00
K%
53%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 82.2 | 88.9 |
| Barrel% | 16% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 42% | 0% |
| xwOBA | .289 | .008 |
| xSLG | .482 | .011 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 14% |
| Chase% | 29% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
82.2 avg EV · 15.8% barrel · 42% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Montgomery0
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
10 322°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+7%
K Adj
-7%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:47 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game