Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Dominic Smith
Atlanta Braves · Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
MG Score
48
D
Tonight's Matchup
53
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Kevin Gausman · RHP · 90.9 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
2.84
WHIP
1.14
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
89.0
87.0
Barrel%
8.3%
14.3%
Hard Hit%
38%
50%
xwOBA
.382
.415
xSLG
.522
.551
Whiff%
19%
9%
Chase%
32%
25%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Kevin Gausman: 12 PA · Low sample
AB
10
AVG
.000
OPS
.083
HR
0
H
0
K
3
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
89.0
Barrel%
8.3%
Hard Hit%
38%
Sweet Spot%
35%
xwOBA
0.382
xSLG
0.522
Recent Games
Last 5
40%
2/5 games
Last 10
50%
5/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
47%
14/30 games
AVG
.300
OBP
.344
SLG
.500
OPS
.844
HR
1
RBI
6
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Cincinnati Reds | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Boston Red Sox | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Washington Nationals | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Washington Nationals | 5 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/19 | Miami Marlins | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Dominic Smith
Atlanta Braves · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
88.6 mph
Avg LA
14.2°
Hard-hit %
41%
Barrel %
20%
Outcomes (85 balls)
Home Run
4Triple
0Double
4Single
26Out
51Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.