Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays · Pitcher
ERA 3.43 · WHIP 0.99 · K 25% · 11 starts

DREW RASMUSSEN
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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DREW
RASMUSSEN
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam35%96 mph
Sinker25%95 mph
Cutter24%90 mph
Changeup13%89 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.43
WHIP
0.99
K%
25%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.5% | 11% |
| Chase% | 31% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .357 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.4
K/GM
5.8
IP/GM
3.10
ERA
0.93
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
25% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.10 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
