Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Drew Rasmussen
Tampa Bay Rays · New York Yankees vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.37 · WHIP 0.86 · K 26% · 11 starts
DREW RASMUSSEN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
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H
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DREW
RASMUSSEN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter27%90 mph
4-Seam26%96 mph
Sinker23%96 mph
Changeup15%90 mph
Curveball5%80 mph
Matchup
VS NYY LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.37
WHIP
0.86
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 25% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .347 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 37% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
3.20
ERA
0.92
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 37% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.20 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYY—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:09 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.