Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Dustin May
St. Louis Cardinals · Atlanta Braves vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.15 · WHIP 1.08 · K 27% · 11 starts
DUSTIN MAY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
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DUSTIN
MAY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam31%97 mph
Cutter23%93 mph
Sinker19%97 mph
Sweeper16%86 mph
Matchup
VS ATL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.15
WHIP
1.08
K%
27%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 11.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .405 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 44% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.1
IP/GM
5.75
ERA
1.28
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
27% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 44% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.75 ERA · 26% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs ATL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
2 296°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 10:45 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.