Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Dustin May
Milwaukee Brewers · Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.40 · WHIP 1.56 · K 22% · 11 starts
DUSTIN MAY
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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DUSTIN
MAY
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter35%93 mph
4-Seam19%96 mph
Sinker18%96 mph
Sweeper17%86 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.40
WHIP
1.56
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .429 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 16% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
3.9
IP/GM
6.41
ERA
1.53
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
16% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 6.41 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:42 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.