Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Foster Griffin
Washington Nationals · Houston Astros vs Washington Nationals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.11 · WHIP 0.89 · K 26% · 11 starts
FOSTER GRIFFIN
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
FOSTER
GRIFFIN
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Cutter35%89 mph
4-Seam15%92 mph
Curveball14%78 mph
Sweeper14%80 mph
Changeup10%82 mph
Sinker9%92 mph
Matchup
VS HOU LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.11
WHIP
0.89
K%
26%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 41% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .341 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
0.81
ERA
0.63
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
26% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 0.81 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs HOU—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
83°
Wind
4 249°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+11%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.