Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
FREDDIE FREEMAN
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
FREDDIE
FREEMAN
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
69
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Gerrit Cole · RHP
92.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
78
VS
ERA
4.04
WHIP
1.20
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.6 | 86.7 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 45% | 45% |
| xwOBA | .431 | .392 |
| xSLG | .622 | .549 |
| Whiff% | 19% | 17% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.6 avg EV · 12.3% barrel · 45% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Cole—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
1 176°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 2:08 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game