Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Freddy Peralta
Tampa Bay Rays · Tampa Bay Rays vs Detroit Tigers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 5.53 · WHIP 1.45 · K 20% · 11 starts
FREDDY PERALTA
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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FREDDY
PERALTA
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%94 mph
Changeup33%87 mph
Curveball11%79 mph
Sweeper7%83 mph
Matchup
VS DET LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
5.53
WHIP
1.45
K%
20%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 39% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .425 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
5.60
ERA
1.13
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
20% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.60 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs DET—
Tonight's Park
HR
-10%
Hits
-2%
2B
-8%
3B
+42%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
11 205°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:16 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.