Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Freddy Peralta
New York Mets · Boston Red Sox vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 6.05 · WHIP 1.64 · K 21% · 11 starts
FREDDY PERALTA
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
FREDDY
PERALTA
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam49%95 mph
Changeup18%87 mph
Curveball16%79 mph
Sweeper13%82 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
6.05
WHIP
1.64
K%
21%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 8.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .313 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.6
K/GM
4.3
IP/GM
7.59
ERA
1.97
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
21% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 7.59 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
80°
Wind
9 161°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:28 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.