Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · Pittsburgh Pirates vs Cleveland Guardians · Pitcher
ERA 3.88 · WHIP 1.12 · K 29% · 10 starts
GAVIN WILLIAMS
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GAVIN
WILLIAMS
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper30%88 mph
Sinker25%98 mph
Curveball19%83 mph
4-Seam18%98 mph
Cutter8%93 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
59
projected lineup
VS
ERA
3.88
WHIP
1.12
K%
29%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 26% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.4% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .397 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 14% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.0
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
5.40
ERA
1.31
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
29% season K rate
Contact Suppression
14% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 5.40 ERA · 30% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
3 40°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.