Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians vs Los Angeles Angels · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.25 · WHIP 1.10 · K 38% · 11 starts
GAVIN WILLIAMS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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GAVIN
WILLIAMS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam34%98 mph
Sweeper34%88 mph
Curveball23%82 mph
Sinker8%98 mph
Matchup
VS LAA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.25
WHIP
1.10
K%
38%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 34% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 16.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 36% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .408 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 42% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.2
K/GM
4.5
IP/GM
5.56
ERA
1.41
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
38% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 42% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 5.56 ERA · 36% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAA—
Tonight's Park
HR
+13%
Hits
-2%
2B
-13%
3B
-3%
K
+5%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
93°
Wind
8 284°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+19%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 6:21 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.