Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + NHL + NBA + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Gavin Williams
Cleveland Guardians · Tampa Bay Rays vs Cleveland Guardians · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.88 · WHIP 1.22 · K 37% · 10 starts
GAVIN WILLIAMS
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GAVIN
WILLIAMS
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper32%88 mph
4-Seam31%99 mph
Knuckle-Curve24%83 mph
Sinker13%98 mph
Matchup
VS TB LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
73
VS
ERA
3.88
WHIP
1.22
K%
37%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 39% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 19.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .438 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
8.8
K/GM
5.7
IP/GM
2.54
ERA
1.06
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
37% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.54 ERA · 39% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TB—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
60°
Wind
5 41°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-20%
K Adj
+3%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 7:23 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.