Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Gerrit Cole
New York Yankees · Los Angeles Dodgers vs New York Yankees · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.04 · WHIP 1.20 · K 23% · 9 starts
GERRIT COLE
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GERRIT
COLE
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam44%97 mph
Slider21%89 mph
Changeup15%87 mph
Knuckle-Curve14%83 mph
Sinker6%96 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
19
VS
ERA
4.04
WHIP
1.20
K%
23%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 18% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .418 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 13% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 49% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.8
K/GM
5.4
IP/GM
5.33
ERA
1.33
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
23% season K rate
Contact Suppression
13% barrel · 49% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 5.33 ERA · 25% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
+25%
Hits
-6%
2B
-8%
3B
-52%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
84°
Wind
7 148°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.