Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
GRAHAM PAULEY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
GRAHAM
PAULEY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
35
Grade F
Matchup
VS Brady Singer · RHP
87.5 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
15
VS
ERA
3.86
WHIP
1.23
K%
21%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 84.8 | 88.7 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 22% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .286 | .328 |
| xSLG | .357 | .439 |
| Whiff% | 24% | 26% |
| Chase% | 39% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
84.8 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 22% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Singer0
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
86°
Wind
7 110°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 10:20 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game