GRANT HOLMES

K—@ —

POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS

Prop Board

K

no line

Win

no line

ER

no line

H

no line

GRANT

HOLMES

K—

Pitch Arsenal · 30d

Slider28%86 mph

4-Seam26%95 mph

Sinker18%94 mph

Changeup13%90 mph

Curveball9%84 mph

Matchup

VS PHI LINEUP

SEASON RATES BELOW

VS

ERA

2.75

WHIP

1.24

K%

14%

Statcast · vs MLB Avg

	Pitcher	MLB Avg
Whiff%	27%	25%
SwStr%	13.5%	11%
Chase%	35%	28%
xwOBA-a	.435	.315
Barrel%-a	20%	8%
HardHit%-a	56%	39%

Recent Form · Last 5

1.2

K/GM

3.3

IP/GM

3.78

ERA

1.62

WHIP

Strikeout Upside

14% season K rate

Contact Suppression

20% barrel · 56% hard-hit allowed

Park / Weather

Neutral park · air boosting HR

Mongoose Model Projection

—

Model Prob

—

Fair Odds

—

EDGE —

Recent Form · K last 12 starts

0 of 12 starts over

Last 5: 3.78 ERA · 8% K

5

2

3

3

3

1

6

4

1

1

Season—

Home—

Last 5—

vs PHI—

Tonight's Park

HR

+3%

Hits

+2%

2B

-4%

3B

0%

K

+7%

vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)

Tonight's Weather + Adjustment

Temp

83°

Wind

6 114°

Rain

0%

HR Adj

+8%

K Adj

-2%

weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher

odds as of 3:07 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game

Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.