Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Grant Holmes
Atlanta Braves · Colorado Rockies vs Atlanta Braves · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.09 · WHIP 1.23 · K 16% · 11 starts
GRANT HOLMES
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GRANT
HOLMES
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider38%85 mph
4-Seam19%94 mph
Sinker14%93 mph
Changeup11%89 mph
Cutter9%92 mph
Curveball9%82 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.09
WHIP
1.23
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .379 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 11% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 46% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.2
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
3.04
ERA
1.24
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
11% barrel · 46% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.04 ERA · 15% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
+2%
2B
-4%
3B
0%
K
+7%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
6 117°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+2%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:54 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.