Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Grant Holmes
Atlanta Braves · Atlanta Braves vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.16 · WHIP 1.38 · K 22% · 10 starts
GRANT HOLMES
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GRANT
HOLMES
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Slider33%85 mph
4-Seam27%94 mph
Sinker18%93 mph
Curveball11%83 mph
Cutter7%92 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.16
WHIP
1.38
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 22% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 28% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .326 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 36% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
3.0
K/GM
3.5
IP/GM
2.60
ERA
1.38
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 36% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.60 ERA · 20% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
7 234°
Rain
100%
HR Adj
+6%
K Adj
-8%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 4:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.