Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Griffin Jax
Tampa Bay Rays · Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.26 · WHIP 1.11 · K 28% · 10 starts
GRIFFIN JAX
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
GRIFFIN
JAX
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper28%88 mph
Changeup26%91 mph
Sinker20%95 mph
4-Seam16%96 mph
Curveball10%85 mph
Matchup
VS BOS LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
41
VS
ERA
3.26
WHIP
1.11
K%
28%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 29% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 13.2% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .499 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 17% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 43% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.0
K/GM
5.2
IP/GM
3.12
ERA
1.00
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
28% season K rate
Contact Suppression
17% barrel · 43% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 3.12 ERA · 29% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs BOS—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
67°
Wind
11 222°
Rain
27%
HR Adj
+10%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.