Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JACKSON CHOURIO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JACKSON
CHOURIO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
46
Grade D
Matchup
VS Sandy Alcantara · RHP
91.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
57
VS
ERA
4.43
WHIP
1.19
K%
20%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.9 | 88.8 |
| Barrel% | 13% | 17% |
| Hard Hit% | 42% | 22% |
| xwOBA | .346 | .395 |
| xSLG | .508 | .636 |
| Whiff% | 21% | 21% |
| Chase% | 35% | 35% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.9 avg EV · 12.8% barrel · 42% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Alcantara0
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game