Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers vs St. Louis Cardinals · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 0.99 · WHIP 0.63 · K 40% · 11 starts
JACOB MISIOROWSKI
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
JACOB
MISIOROWSKI
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam65%102 mph
Cutter19%96 mph
Curveball8%89 mph
Slider6%90 mph
Matchup
VS STL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
0.99
WHIP
0.63
K%
40%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 36% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 19.7% | 11% |
| Chase% | 39% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .291 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
10.2
K/GM
6.6
IP/GM
1.91
ERA
0.64
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
40% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.91 ERA · 43% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs STL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-11%
Hits
+3%
2B
+3%
3B
-6%
K
-9%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
78°
Wind
5 145°
Rain
87%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
-5%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:55 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.