Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Jacob Misiorowski
Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers vs New York Mets · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.25 · WHIP 0.78 · K 38% · 11 starts
JACOB MISIOROWSKI
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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JACOB
MISIOROWSKI
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam64%101 mph
Slider17%91 mph
Cutter10%96 mph
Curveball9%88 mph
Matchup
VS NYM LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.25
WHIP
0.78
K%
38%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 34% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 17.8% | 11% |
| Chase% | 38% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .305 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 12% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 28% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
7.4
K/GM
6.2
IP/GM
2.32
ERA
0.77
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
38% season K rate
Contact Suppression
12% barrel · 28% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
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Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
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EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.32 ERA · 32% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs NYM—
Tonight's Park
HR
+3%
Hits
-9%
2B
-11%
3B
-25%
K
+4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
74°
Wind
18 200°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+18%
K Adj
-6%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.