Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + NHL + NBA + WNBA + PGA Analytics
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JONATHAN ARANDA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JONATHAN
ARANDA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
57
Grade C
Matchup
VS Jacob Misiorowski · RHP
97.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
58
VS
ERA
2.09
WHIP
0.88
K%
30%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.4 | 90.3 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 8% |
| Hard Hit% | 48% | 47% |
| xwOBA | .400 | .374 |
| xSLG | .579 | .505 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 20% |
| Chase% | 32% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.4 avg EV · 11.9% barrel · 48% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Misiorowski0
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 12:20 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game