Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JONATHAN ARANDA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JONATHAN
ARANDA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
73
Grade B
Matchup
VS Justin Wrobleski · LHP
91.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
100
VS
ERA
3.77
WHIP
1.15
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 93.1 | 91.5 |
| Barrel% | 21% | 17% |
| Hard Hit% | 51% | 44% |
| xwOBA | .480 | .450 |
| xSLG | .735 | .733 |
| Whiff% | 20% | 19% |
| Chase% | 25% | 16% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
93.1 avg EV · 20.6% barrel · 51% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Wrobleski—
Tonight's Park
HR
+23%
Hits
-3%
2B
-5%
3B
-39%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
7 210°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:03 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game