Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JONATHAN ARANDA
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JONATHAN
ARANDA
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
64
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Erick Fedde · RHP
89.9 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
73
VS
ERA
3.18
WHIP
1.36
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.7 | 91.9 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 11% |
| Hard Hit% | 45% | 56% |
| xwOBA | .388 | .410 |
| xSLG | .591 | .624 |
| Whiff% | 18% | 21% |
| Chase% | 36% | 26% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.7 avg EV · 11.6% barrel · 45% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Fedde—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:40 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game