Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
JORDAN LAWLAR
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
JORDAN
LAWLAR
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Rhett Lowder · RHP
90.2 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
56
VS
ERA
6.87
WHIP
1.85
K%
18%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 88.0 | 82.7 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 17% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 33% |
| xwOBA | .569 | .222 |
| xSLG | .668 | .293 |
| Whiff% | 13% | 27% |
| Chase% | 44% | 19% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
88.0 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Big HR park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lowder—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
88°
Wind
5 226°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:01 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game