Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
LANE THOMAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
LANE
THOMAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
53
Grade C-
Matchup
VS Andrew Alvarez · LHP
87.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
32
VS
ERA
3.12
WHIP
1.73
K%
23%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.3 | 89.6 |
| Barrel% | 5% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 33% | 42% |
| xwOBA | .351 | .291 |
| xSLG | .505 | .384 |
| Whiff% | 17% | 21% |
| Chase% | 21% | 27% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.3 avg EV · 5.0% barrel · 33% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Alvarez—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
+4%
2B
-3%
3B
-8%
K
-11%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
75°
Wind
6 309°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:53 AM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game