Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Logan Henderson
Milwaukee Brewers · Texas Rangers vs Milwaukee Brewers · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 2.13 · WHIP 0.81 · K 30% · 11 starts
LOGAN HENDERSON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
LOGAN
HENDERSON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam48%93 mph
Changeup34%83 mph
Cutter15%89 mph
Matchup
VS TEX LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
2.13
WHIP
0.81
K%
30%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 23% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 12.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 33% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .329 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 45% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
6.4
K/GM
6.5
IP/GM
2.23
ERA
0.71
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
30% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 45% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-friendly park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 2.23 ERA · 27% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs TEX—
Tonight's Park
HR
+8%
Hits
-6%
2B
-17%
3B
-9%
K
+11%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.