Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MANNY MACHADO
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MANNY
MACHADO
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
65
Grade C+
Matchup
VS Seth Lugo · RHP
85.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
100
VS
ERA
5.37
WHIP
1.44
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.2 | 97.3 |
| Barrel% | 21% | 10% |
| Hard Hit% | 47% | 60% |
| xwOBA | .423 | .535 |
| xSLG | .661 | .839 |
| Whiff% | 29% | 29% |
| Chase% | 30% | 13% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.2 avg EV · 21.0% barrel · 47% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lugo0
Tonight's Park
HR
-15%
Hits
+5%
2B
+16%
3B
+76%
K
-12%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
81°
Wind
6 190°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:52 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game