Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Manny Machado
San Diego Padres · San Diego Padres vs Philadelphia Phillies
MG Score
64
C+
Tonight's Matchup
51
Matchup
Neutral matchup
vs Aaron Nola · RHP · 84.9 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
4.71
WHIP
1.15
K%
20%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
90.6
78.7
Barrel%
16.7%
12.5%
Hard Hit%
49%
25%
xwOBA
.384
.297
xSLG
.623
.407
Whiff%
26%
29%
Chase%
33%
40%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Aaron Nola: 21 PA · Low sample
AB
20
AVG
.100
OPS
.243
HR
0
H
2
K
6
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
90.6
Barrel%
16.7%
Hard Hit%
49%
Sweet Spot%
31%
xwOBA
0.384
xSLG
0.623
Recent Games
Last 5
60%
3/5 games
Last 10
40%
4/10 games
Last 20
45%
9/20 games
Last 30
43%
9/21 games
AVG
.139
OBP
.225
SLG
.417
OPS
.642
HR
3
RBI
8
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Philadelphia Phillies | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/25 | Philadelphia Phillies | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Athletics | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Athletics | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Athletics | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 |
| 5/20 | Los Angeles Dodgers | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Manny Machado
San Diego Padres · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
90.6 mph
Avg LA
9.9°
Hard-hit %
46%
Barrel %
13%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
4Triple
0Double
3Single
13Out
80Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
C+Performance Score
58Exit Velo
87.5 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
45.5%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
26.5%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.417
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
36.4%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: xwOBA, Sweet Spot%
Areas for Improvement: Exit Velo, Chase%
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
108.0 mph
Launch Angle
9.9°
xBA
0.332
xSLG
0.700
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
45.5%
Fly Ball%
27.3%
Line Drive%
18.2%
Pop Up%
9.1%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.