Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MATT SHAW
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MATT
SHAW
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
30
Grade F
Matchup
VS Michael Lorenzen · RHP
88.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
VS
ERA
9.55
WHIP
2.03
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 85.5 | 77.4 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 10% |
| xwOBA | .257 | .147 |
| xSLG | .330 | .197 |
| Whiff% | 30% | 25% |
| Chase% | 39% | 30% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
85.5 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Lorenzen—
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
6 219°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+12%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 9:34 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game