Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + NHL + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Matt Wilkinson
San Francisco Giants · Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.51 · WHIP 0.97 · K 19% · 8 starts
MATT WILKINSON
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
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Win
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ER
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H
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MATT
WILKINSON
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam57%90 mph
Changeup23%84 mph
Slider15%79 mph
Matchup
VS LAD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.51
WHIP
0.97
K%
19%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 19% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 27% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .305 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
2.6
K/GM
2.8
IP/GM
2.57
ERA
0.86
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
19% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 8 starts
0 of 8 starts over
Last 5: 2.57 ERA · 24% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs LAD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
60°
Wind
8 218°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+4%
K Adj
+4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:59 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.