Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Michael King
San Diego Padres · San Diego Padres vs Cincinnati Reds · Pitcher
ERA 2.72 · WHIP 1.14 · K 22% · 10 starts

MICHAEL KING
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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MICHAEL
KING
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker29%94 mph
Changeup23%87 mph
4-Seam21%95 mph
Sweeper21%82 mph
Slider6%86 mph
Matchup
VS CIN LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
52
projected lineup
VS
ERA
2.72
WHIP
1.14
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.0% | 11% |
| Chase% | 34% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .305 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 8% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 25% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
5.2
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
2.64
ERA
1.14
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
8% barrel · 25% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Big HR park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 10 starts
0 of 10 starts over
Last 5: 2.64 ERA · 21% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs CIN—
Tonight's Park
HR
+27%
Hits
0%
2B
-1%
3B
-24%
K
+2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
1 331°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 2:02 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.
