Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MICKEY GASPER
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MICKEY
GASPER
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Merrill Kelly · RHP
88.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
72
VS
ERA
4.23
WHIP
1.45
K%
17%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 89.7 | 90.2 |
| Barrel% | 20% | 9% |
| Hard Hit% | 20% | 46% |
| xwOBA | .504 | .397 |
| xSLG | .848 | .571 |
| Whiff% | 0% | 20% |
| Chase% | 0% | 32% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
89.7 avg EV · 20.0% barrel · 20% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Kelly—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
76°
Wind
6 90°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:49 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game