Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
MIGUEL VARGAS
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
MIGUEL
VARGAS
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
76
Grade B+
Matchup
VS Spencer Miles · RHP
91.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
67
VS
ERA
1.90
WHIP
1.01
K%
25%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 92.5 | 92.1 |
| Barrel% | 23% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 52% | 40% |
| xwOBA | .469 | .301 |
| xSLG | .717 | .362 |
| Whiff% | 15% | 8% |
| Chase% | 25% | 9% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
92.5 avg EV · 22.7% barrel · 52% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Miles0
Tonight's Park
HR
0%
Hits
-2%
2B
+9%
3B
-31%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 1:56 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game