Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
NICK FORTES
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
NICK
FORTES
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
33
Grade F
Matchup
VS Jake Bennett · LHP
89.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
5
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VS
ERA
2.64
WHIP
0.94
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 82.3 | 81.0 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 25% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .202 | .335 |
| xSLG | .280 | .481 |
| Whiff% | 14% | 19% |
| Chase% | 40% | 24% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
82.3 avg EV · 5.6% barrel · 25% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Bennett0
Tonight's Park
HR
—
Hits
—
2B
—
3B
—
K
—
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
77°
Wind
9 305°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+5%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:50 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game