Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
Nick Martinez
Tampa Bay Rays · San Diego Padres vs Tampa Bay Rays · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.34 · WHIP 1.02 · K 14% · 11 starts
NICK MARTINEZ
K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
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K
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H
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NICK
MARTINEZ
K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker31%92 mph
Changeup26%77 mph
Cutter21%89 mph
4-Seam16%92 mph
Slider6%84 mph
Matchup
VS SD LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.34
WHIP
1.02
K%
14%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 14% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 7.1% | 11% |
| Chase% | 32% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .371 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 10% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 38% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.4
K/GM
6.1
IP/GM
3.86
ERA
1.09
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
14% season K rate
Contact Suppression
10% barrel · 38% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Neutral park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 3.86 ERA · 18% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs SD—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 5:01 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.