Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Ozzie Albies
Atlanta Braves · Toronto Blue Jays vs Atlanta Braves
MG Score
36
F
Tonight's Matchup
25
Matchup
Avoid
vs Kevin Gausman · RHP · 90.9 mph avg
50 = avg vs tonight's starters
ERA
2.84
WHIP
1.14
K%
22%
Statcast matchup
Batter
Pitcher
Exit Velo
85.6
87.0
Barrel%
5.6%
14.3%
Hard Hit%
21%
50%
xwOBA
.278
.415
xSLG
.389
.551
Whiff%
18%
9%
Chase%
36%
25%
Pitcher column = the rate this starter allows. Green = good for that player, red = poor (vs MLB average).
Career vs Kevin Gausman: 6 PA · Low sample
AB
6
AVG
.000
OPS
.000
HR
0
H
0
K
1
Tonight's Projection
Statcast · last 30d
Exit Velo
85.6
Barrel%
5.6%
Hard Hit%
21%
Sweet Spot%
30%
xwOBA
0.278
xSLG
0.389
Recent Games
Last 5
100%
5/5 games
Last 10
70%
7/10 games
Last 20
50%
10/20 games
Last 30
48%
11/23 games
AVG
.262
OBP
.295
SLG
.381
OPS
.676
HR
1
RBI
2
| Date | vs | AB | H | HR | RBI | BB | K | SB |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5/31 | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/30 | Cincinnati Reds | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/29 | Cincinnati Reds | 5 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/28 | Boston Red Sox | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/27 | Boston Red Sox | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/26 | Boston Red Sox | 5 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/24 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/23 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 5/22 | Washington Nationals | 4 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5/21 | Miami Marlins | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
Spray Chart
Spray Rain
Spray Read
Ozzie Albies
Atlanta Braves · bats RHB
vs Pitcher Hand
Window
Avg EV
86.2 mph
Avg LA
15.7°
Hard-hit %
26%
Barrel %
15%
Outcomes (100 balls)
Home Run
5Triple
0Double
7Single
23Out
65Each dot is a real batted ball this player hit, pulled from Statcast tracking.
Advanced Statcast
Data Period: 5/23/2026 - 5/31/2026
Games: 8
Statcast Performance Profile
Advanced metrics from Statcast data (last 10 days)
Overall Grade
FPerformance Score
30Exit Velo
86.5 mph
Average exit velocity off the bat
Hard Hit%
26.7%
Percentage of balls hit 95+ mph
Chase%
40.0%
Percentage of swings at pitches outside the zone
xwOBA
0.323
Expected weighted on-base average
Sweet Spot%
36.7%
Percentage of balls hit at ideal launch angle
Performance Insights
Strengths: Sweet Spot%
Areas for Improvement: Chase%, Exit Velo
How to Read This Chart
Excellent (75-100)
Good (60-74)
Average (45-59)
Below Average (0-44)
The larger the shape, the better the overall performance. Each point represents a different advanced metric.
Additional Metrics
Max Exit Velo
107.5 mph
Launch Angle
18.1°
xBA
0.302
xSLG
0.454
Batted Ball Profile
Ground Ball%
36.7%
Fly Ball%
33.3%
Line Drive%
26.7%
Pop Up%
3.3%
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast + spray refreshed daily.