Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Parker Messick
Cleveland Guardians · Cleveland Guardians vs Miami Marlins · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.00 · WHIP 1.12 · K 22% · 12 starts
PARKER MESSICK
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
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ER
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H
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PARKER
MESSICK
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
4-Seam39%95 mph
Changeup22%86 mph
Sinker20%93 mph
Curveball11%80 mph
Cutter6%90 mph
Matchup
VS MIA LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.00
WHIP
1.12
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 21% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.9% | 11% |
| Chase% | 30% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .298 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 6% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 31% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.0
K/GM
5.3
IP/GM
2.73
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
6% barrel · 31% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 12 starts
0 of 12 starts over
Last 5: 2.73 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs MIA—
Tonight's Park
HR
-7%
Hits
+5%
2B
+8%
3B
+6%
K
-2%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 3:48 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.