Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
PATRICK BAILEY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
PATRICK
BAILEY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
66
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Spencer Miles · RHP
92.1 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
65
VS
ERA
1.93
WHIP
1.07
K%
16%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 91.8 | 89.4 |
| Barrel% | 12% | 12% |
| Hard Hit% | 52% | 45% |
| xwOBA | .452 | .277 |
| xSLG | .653 | .372 |
| Whiff% | 22% | 12% |
| Chase% | 23% | 28% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
91.8 avg EV · 12.1% barrel · 52% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Miles—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
87°
Wind
6 220°
Rain
1%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 7:22 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game