Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
PATRICK BAILEY
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
PATRICK
BAILEY
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
39
Grade F
Matchup
VS Jared Jones · RHP
96.0 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
1
VS
ERA
4.37
WHIP
1.14
K%
27%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.8 | 81.0 |
| Barrel% | 6% | 0% |
| Hard Hit% | 42% | 20% |
| xwOBA | .323 | .167 |
| xSLG | .458 | .243 |
| Whiff% | 29% | 33% |
| Chase% | 35% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.8 avg EV · 6.1% barrel · 42% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · weather suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Jones—
Tonight's Park
HR
-17%
Hits
-2%
2B
+14%
3B
-25%
K
0%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
3 40°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-13%
K Adj
-0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 3:46 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game