Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Robbie Ray
San Francisco Giants · Colorado Rockies vs San Francisco Giants · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 3.84 · WHIP 1.39 · K 16% · 11 starts
ROBBIE RAY
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ROBBIE
RAY
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sinker26%92 mph
Slider23%87 mph
4-Seam21%93 mph
Changeup18%87 mph
Knuckle-Curve13%80 mph
Matchup
VS COL LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
3.84
WHIP
1.39
K%
16%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 9.3% | 11% |
| Chase% | 26% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .307 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 7% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 39% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
6.7
IP/GM
1.08
ERA
0.99
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
16% season K rate
Contact Suppression
7% barrel · 39% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 11 starts
0 of 11 starts over
Last 5: 1.08 ERA · 19% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs COL—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+3%
3B
+33%
K
-3%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
7 247°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+8%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 12:54 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.