Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
Robert Gasser
Milwaukee Brewers · Milwaukee Brewers vs Pittsburgh Pirates · confirmed starter · Pitcher
ERA 4.73 · WHIP 1.20 · K 22% · 9 starts
ROBERT GASSER
Over K—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
K
no line
Win
no line
ER
no line
H
no line
ROBERT
GASSER
Over K—
Pitch Arsenal · 30d
Sweeper30%80 mph
4-Seam29%92 mph
Sinker25%92 mph
Cutter13%88 mph
Matchup
VS PIT LINEUP
SEASON RATES BELOW
VS
ERA
4.73
WHIP
1.20
K%
22%
Statcast · vs MLB Avg
| Pitcher | MLB Avg | |
|---|---|---|
| Whiff% | 20% | 25% |
| SwStr% | 10.6% | 11% |
| Chase% | 29% | 28% |
| xwOBA-a | .326 | .315 |
| Barrel%-a | 9% | 8% |
| HardHit%-a | 29% | 39% |
Recent Form · Last 5
4.8
K/GM
5.5
IP/GM
3.62
ERA
0.95
WHIP
Strikeout Upside
22% season K rate
Contact Suppression
9% barrel · 29% hard-hit allowed
Park / Weather
Pitcher's park · air suppressing HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · K last 9 starts
0 of 9 starts over
Last 5: 3.62 ERA · 22% K
Season—
Home—
Last 5—
vs PIT—
Tonight's Park
HR
-20%
Hits
+1%
2B
+12%
3B
-23%
K
-4%
vs league average · green helps the pitcher (K not inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
82°
Wind
2 99°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
-3%
K Adj
-2%
weather impact on projections · green helps the pitcher
odds as of 1:53 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game
Projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game. Statcast & pitch mix refreshed daily; season rates from game logs.