Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB Analytics
RYAN VILADE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
RYAN
VILADE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
66
Grade B-
Matchup
VS Jake Bennett · LHP
89.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
49
VS
ERA
2.35
WHIP
0.88
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 87.4 | 81.0 |
| Barrel% | 17% | 5% |
| Hard Hit% | 44% | 35% |
| xwOBA | .371 | .335 |
| xSLG | .639 | .481 |
| Whiff% | 27% | 19% |
| Chase% | 25% | 24% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
87.4 avg EV · 16.7% barrel · 44% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Bennett—
Tonight's Park
HR
-9%
Hits
+8%
2B
+24%
3B
-6%
K
-1%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
79°
Wind
3 132°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 5:47 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game