Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
RYAN VILADE
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
RYAN
VILADE
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
77
Grade B+
Matchup
VS Sean Manaea · LHP
86.7 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
100
VS
ERA
4.37
WHIP
1.27
K%
22%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 90.6 | 91.3 |
| Barrel% | 23% | 20% |
| Hard Hit% | 50% | 47% |
| xwOBA | .544 | .453 |
| xSLG | .842 | .729 |
| Whiff% | 23% | 24% |
| Chase% | 30% | 29% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
90.6 avg EV · 23.3% barrel · 50% hard-hit
Park / Weather
Neutral park · weather neutral
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Manaea—
Tonight's Park
HR
-3%
Hits
-3%
2B
-11%
3B
+31%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
72°
Wind
0
Rain
0%
HR Adj
0%
K Adj
0%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 8:19 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game