Mongoose Bets | The Math Behind the Line — MLB + NFL + CFB + WNBA + PGA Analytics
SAL FRELICK
Over 1+ HR—@ —
POWERED BYMONGOOSE MODELS
Prop Board
HR 1+
no line
Hits 1+
no line
2B 1+
no line
RBI 1+
no line
TB 2+
no line
SAL
FRELICK
Over 1+ HR—
Statcast Score
50
Grade —
Matchup
VS Clay Holmes · RHP
88.4 MPH AVG FASTBALL
MONGOOSE
MATCHUP SCORE
MATCHUP SCORE
23
VS
ERA
2.50
WHIP
1.04
K%
19%
Statcast Matchup
| Last 10 | Allows | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit Velo | 78.3 | 87.9 |
| Barrel% | 0% | 7% |
| Hard Hit% | 36% | 38% |
| xwOBA | .297 | .318 |
| xSLG | .410 | .430 |
| Whiff% | 19% | 15% |
| Chase% | 23% | 34% |
Hot Streak
No recent logs
Elite Contact
78.3 avg EV · 0.0% barrel · 36% hard-hit
Park / Weather
HR-suppressing park · weather boosting HR
Mongoose Model Projection
—
Model Prob
—
Fair Odds
—
EDGE —
Recent Form · HR last 0 games
No recent games
Last 10: — AVG · 0 HR · 0 RBI · — OPS
HR 0.5
Season—
Home—
Last 10—
vs Holmes1
Tonight's Park
HR
-8%
Hits
-3%
2B
-15%
3B
+16%
K
+3%
vs league average · green helps the hitter (K inverted)
Tonight's Weather + Adjustment
Temp
85°
Wind
10 208°
Rain
0%
HR Adj
+15%
K Adj
-4%
weather impact on projections · green helps the hitter
odds as of 6:25 PM ET · projections from 2,500 Monte Carlo simulations per game